Warning signs

Climate change risks to Victoria's infrastructure

Extreme weather events cost the Victorian economy an average of $2.7 billion a year over the 10 years to 2016. This cost has only increased in recent years. The 2022 floods cost the Victorian Government $1.8 billion in immediate relief funding and another $1.7 billion for flood recovery.

This research report is the largest analysis of climate change risks to Victorian Government-owned and regulated infrastructure. It looks at $318 billion worth of assets across Victoria and the risks they face from 7 different extreme weather events. The research finds more than $57 billion of Victorian Government-owned or regulated infrastructure is at risk of damage or destruction from extreme weather. In the next 40 years, this value at risk rises to more than $71 billion.

This research provides guidance to government on where to focus adaptation action and funding by identifying the infrastructure types and locations most at risk from climate hazards.

Key findings

• Bushfire, flood and extreme heat pose the greatest risks to Victoria Government- owned and regulated infrastructure.
  • $23.4 billion of existing infrastructure is at risk from bushfires, rising to $30.2 billion by 2070.
  • $22.3 billion in infrastructure is already at risk of flooding.
  • Government-owned or regulated infrastructure at risk from extreme heat more than doubles between 2030 and 2070 to $25.9 billion.
• Victorian road, rail, energy and health sectors have the highest infrastructure values at risk from climate hazards.
  • $20.2 billion of roads are at risk from climate hazards, mainly bushfire and floods. Large values are at risk around Melbourne, central Victoria, and along major routes towards Wodonga and Traralgon.
  • $10.3 billion of rail infrastructure is at risk from climate hazards, mainly extreme heat, floods and bushfires. Large values are at risk around Melbourne, Geelong and along regional rail corridors in northern Victoria.
  • $7.1 billion of energy infrastructure is at risk from bushfires, floods and extreme heat, with a large value of energy assets at risk in northern Victoria near Ouyen and Mildura, from Melbourne extending east to the Latrobe Valley, and in Portland.
  • $5.3 billion of health assets across Victoria are at risk from floods, bushfires and extreme heat, with a large value at risk in Bendigo, Swan Hill, Mildura and south-east of Melbourne.