Infrastructure Victoria sounds warning on climate change risk

More than $57 billion of Victorian Government-owned or regulated infrastructure is at risk of damage or destruction from extreme weather. In the next 40 years, this risk rises by nearly 25%.

The state’s independent infrastructure adviser, Infrastructure Victoria, is the first to map the climate change risks to Victorian Government-owned or regulated infrastructure across the state. Its latest research, Warning signs: climate change risks to Victoria’s infrastructure, looks at $318 billion worth of assets across Victoria and the risks they face from seven different extreme weather events.

The research is a first of its kind for Australia. Infrastructure Victoria CEO Dr Jonathan Spear said: “Our research highlights which assets are most exposed, which climate risks matter most, and where risks are concentrated across the state. It shows where the Victorian Government should act now to reduce future damage, service disruption and millions in recovery costs.”

The largest analysis of climate change risks to Victoria’s infrastructure, this research shows bushfire, flood and extreme heat pose the greatest risks. More than $23 billion of existing infrastructure is at risk from bushfires, rising to over $30 billion by 2070. Over $22 billion infrastructure is already at risk of flooding. Infrastructure at-risk from extreme heat more than doubles between 2030 and 2070 to nearly $26 billion.

The analysis also shows the infrastructure types and locations most at risk include:

• much road infrastructure is at risk from floods, bushfires and extreme heat, with a large value of road assets at risk located in Melbourne, central Victoria, and along major roads towards Wodonga and Traralgon
• rail infrastructure is at risk from extreme heat, floods and bushfires, with a large value of assets at risk located around Melbourne, Geelong and along regional rail corridors in northern Victoria
• energy infrastructure is at risk from bushfires, floods and extreme heat, with a large value of energy assets at risk in northern Victoria near Ouyen and Mildura, from Melbourne extending east to the Latrobe Valley, and in Portland
• health assets across Victoria are at risk from floods, bushfires and extreme heat, with a large value at risk in Bendigo, Swan Hill, Mildura and south-east of Melbourne.

Extreme weather events cost the Victorian economy an average of $2.7 billion a year over the ten years to 2016. This has only increased in recent years. The 2022 floods cost the Victorian Government $1.8 billion in immediate relief funding and another $1.7 billion for flood recovery.

In Victoria’s infrastructure strategy 2025–2055, Infrastructure Victoria recommended the government fund high-priority, cost-effective infrastructure adaptation actions. This research provides guidance on where to focus adaptation action and funding by identifying the infrastructure types and locations most at risk from climate hazards.

Research from the Global Commission on Adaptation shows that resilient infrastructure can deliver up to $10 in benefits for every dollar invested. Infrastructure Victoria’s previous research, Weathering the storm, shows preventative maintenance for roads is the most cost-effective way to protect them from flooding. Every $1 extra spent on clearing roadside drains and vegetation returns $5.88 and reduces the risk of landslides after bushfires.

When the government looks to upgrade or build new roads in high-risk locations, our research shows technology like foamed bitumen stabilisation returns nearly $3 for every $1 spent and prevents at-risk roads being washed away by floods.

“The government needs to update and fund its adaptation plans. Funding high-priority, cost-effective infrastructure adaptation actions can save millions in recovery costs and lost productivity,” Dr Spear said.

“The government is already adopting some effective adaptation measures. But more needs to be done, across every sector. This research provides the evidence base to prioritise spending so the government can better protect the essential infrastructure that communities rely on for work, to connect with each other and to keep them healthy,” Dr Spear said.

“Following a summer that saw bushfires, flooding and landslides hit many Victorian communities, we know extreme weather is a reality now.

“As the government maintains existing infrastructure and builds new infrastructure, our research shows where it needs to focus its efforts so that infrastructure can better cope with our current and future climate,” Dr Spear said.