Infrastructure Victoria’s Managing Transport Demand research program used the Melbourne Activity Based Model to understand how Melbourne’s roads might be used in 2030, and provide a comparison to 2015.
The development of the Melbourne Activity Based Model is a significant first for Australia.
The transport model is people-focused and tests the response of individuals to change. This is different from traditional transport modelling which focuses on trips and modes within the transport network but does not explicitly consider the behaviour of individuals travelling on that network.
Our initial modelling of 2030 is based on current behaviours and planned investments but we recognise that new technologies, projects and policies could dramatically change how people use the transport network in the future. Like any modelling, it is a forecast based upon certain assumptions – we can’t predict the future, but we use best available information and evidence to help plan for future infrastructure needs.
It should be noted for simplicity we have referred to the year 2030 in our materials. The actual modelling work forecasts travel patterns to 2031, which is reflected in the below video and KPMG and Arup reports.
To find out more about how the model works, watch the video below or read the KPMG Arup – MABM Validation Report.